PwC Warns Nigeria’s Poverty Rate Could Hit 62% by 2026 as Living Costs Outpace Incomes
Nigeria’s poverty challenge could deepen further over the next two years, with as many as 141 million citizens — about 62 per cent of the population — projected to be living in poverty by 2026, according to a new report by global consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).
The projection is contained in PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026, titled “Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Growth”, which was released this week. The report paints a sobering picture of household welfare in Africa’s largest economy, warning that recent economic reforms, while aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability, have yet to translate into meaningful improvements in living standards for most Nigerians.
PwC notes that although headline inflation is expected to moderate gradually over time, the pace of income growth remains too weak to offset persistently high living costs. As a result, millions of Nigerians are at risk of falling deeper into poverty, particularly those already at the lower end of the income distribution.
According to the report, Nigeria’s poverty rate is projected to rise to 62 per cent by 2026, driven by the combined effects of sluggish real income growth, elevated food and energy prices, and lingering inflationary pressures. PwC cautions that most households are unlikely to experience income increases significant enough to restore purchasing power in the near term.
“Despite expectations of easing inflation, weak real income growth means the cost-of-living crisis will continue to weigh heavily on households,” the report stated. “This leaves a large segment of the population highly vulnerable to economic shocks.”
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The firm highlighted that the burden of rising prices has fallen disproportionately on low-income households, which spend a larger share of their earnings on essentials such as food, transportation, and energy. With limited savings and minimal social protection, these households have little buffer against further economic disruptions.
PwC’s analysis comes amid sweeping economic reforms introduced by the federal government, including the removal of fuel subsidies, unification of the foreign exchange market, and tighter fiscal and monetary policies. While these measures are designed to address long-standing structural imbalances, PwC argues that their social costs are becoming increasingly visible.
The report warns that without targeted interventions to boost incomes, productivity, and job creation, macroeconomic stability alone will not be sufficient to reduce poverty. PwC stressed that economic growth must be inclusive and labour-intensive to translate into tangible welfare gains for the majority of Nigerians.
“Stabilisation policies are a necessary first step, but they are not enough on their own,” the report noted. “Nigeria must focus on converting macroeconomic gains into sustainable growth that raises real incomes and reduces poverty.”
The firm also drew attention to the vulnerability of households to external shocks, including fluctuations in global oil prices, climate-related disruptions to agriculture, and global financial tightening. These risks, PwC said, could further undermine household welfare if not adequately managed.
PwC’s projection has sparked debate among analysts and the public, with some questioning the reliability of long-term economic forecasts in a highly volatile and policy-sensitive economy like Nigeria’s. Critics argue that Nigeria’s large informal sector and the population’s ability to adapt through multiple income streams often make poverty outcomes difficult to model accurately.
However, PwC acknowledged these uncertainties in its report, noting that its projections are based on current policy trajectories and macroeconomic assumptions rather than guaranteed outcomes. The firm stressed that stronger-than-expected policy execution, faster productivity gains, or effective social interventions could alter the projected poverty path.
The report concluded by urging policymakers to prioritise measures that directly impact household welfare, including expanding targeted social safety nets, improving access to affordable energy, supporting small businesses, and investing in sectors with high employment potential.
As Nigeria navigates a difficult reform period, PwC’s warning underscores the urgency of ensuring that economic adjustments do not leave a growing share of the population behind. Whether the country’s current reform agenda can reverse the projected rise in poverty will depend largely on how quickly stability is translated into jobs, income growth, and tangible relief for ordinary Nigerians.